New York Red Bulls or Portland Timbers will claim final CCL spot

With last year’s change of the Concacaf Champions League to a strictly winter and spring tournament, following intricacies of who qualifies for the 2019 edition has required more than a little guidance for most of us.

With the 2018 CCL entrants from MLS already decided based on the 2016 season, that meant spots in the 2019 tournament would be decided among honor winners from both 2017 and 2018. Toronto FC winning MLS Cup in 2017 also threw a bit of a wrench into qualification.

However, with the dust settling on the in the MLS Conference Semfinals, the equation is finally relatively simple: 

If the Portland Timbers win the 2018 MLS Cup, they’ll join Sporting Kansas City, the Houston Dynamo, Toronto and Atlanta United as MLS’ fifth representative in 2019. Otherwise, it will be the New York Red Bulls.

Why, exactly?

Well, when this two-year qualifying cycle started, the four berths for the US and one for Canada were allocated as follows, with the teams who have already earned those berths listed in parentheses.

Canada

1. 2018 Canada Championship winner (Toronto FC)

United States

1. 2017 U.S. Open Cup winner (Sporting Kansas City)
2. 2017 MLS Cup winner (Atlanta United — we’ll explain this one in a minute)
3. 2018 U.S. Open Cup winner (Houston Dynamo)
4. 2018 MLS Cup winner (TBD)

Because Toronto won 2017 MLS Cup, and a Canadian team was unable to qualify by winning MLS Cup, the berth was awarded to the team that finished with the best combined points totals across 2017 and 2018. That was Atlanta, with 124. And with SKC winning the Open Cup in 2017, that leaves two teams already in the MLS Conference Championships assured of a bid. So if either of them win MLS Cup, their bid goes to the team with the next-best points total from 2017 and 2018, That’s the Red Bulls, with 121.

Obviously, the Red Bulls also qualify if they themselves win MLS Cup for the first time in their history. So the only team that can stop Chris Armas’ side from a return to a competition where they were easily one of the most impressive sides in reaching the 2018 semifinals is the Timbers, who have no other path into next year’s tournament.