Cristiano Ronaldo (R) ten of Real Madrid, now of Juventus and Lionel Messi (L) of Barcelona during the La Liga match between Real Madrid and Barcelona at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain on December 23, 2017. (Photo by Burak Akbulut/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Another UEFA Champions League season starts on Tuesday as eight group stage matches are played with eight more on Wednesday.
A couple of weeks ago Luka Modric broke the Messi/Ronaldo grip on the UEFA Champions League player of the year award. Modric’s award for 2017/18 was the first time since a player not named Messi or Ronaldo had won the trophy since 2013/14 when Franck Ribery was the recipient.
The title of UEFA Champions League’s top scorer is another dominated by Messi and Ronaldo and to even a greater extent.
For the last 12 seasons since Kaka scored 10 goals in 2006/07, Messi and/or Ronaldo have finished top of the scoring charts. Ronaldo has finished top scorer 7 times and Messi has led 5 times.
The closest any other player has come was Neymar. In 2014/15 Neymar scored 10 times and that matched Messi and Ronaldo’s totals.
If you go by what the bookmakers think then one of Messi or Ronaldo are going to be very hard to beat. Messi and Ronaldo are both +350 to finish as the top scorer while Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero is a +560 shot and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah’s odds are +660.
The odds for PSG teammates Kylian Mbappe and Neymar are +850 and +760 respectively.
Kylian Mbappe compared to Ronaldo and Messi when they were 19:
Club Goals:
Mbappé – 52
Messi – 26
Ronaldo – 17International Goals:
Mbappé – 9
Ronaldo – 7
Messi – 4#UCL Goals:
Mbappé – 10
Messi – 2
Ronaldo – 0Could he outshine both of their legacies? pic.twitter.com/w1j4ur1fk9
— 101 Great Goals (@101greatgoals) September 14, 2018
At the end of the 2011/12 UEFA Champions League (a season in which Barcelona and Real Madrid both lost in the semi-finals to Chelsea and Bayern Munich), Lionel Messi had scored 51 Champions League goals, 13 better than Cristiano Ronaldo. In terms of goals per appearance Messi was an impressive 0.75 while Ronaldo was a good distance back at 0.47 goals per appearance.
Fast forward to the end of last season’s competition and the positions have been largely reversed with Cristiano Ronaldo on 120 goals and Messi with 100. That is a turnaround of 33 goals. (Messi retains a slightly better strike rate at 0.80 goals per game versus Ronaldo’s 0.78).
The initial reaction to a 33-goal switch is Messi’s output must have dropped. However, as illustrated by his goals per appearance improving from 0.75 to 0.80 that just isn’t the case.
In fact, over the last six seasons, Lionel Messi has scored 49 goals in 57 UEFA Champions League matches – that is an average of 0.86 goals per game. Not shabby!
But take a look at Ronaldo’s output over the same period – 73 games played, and 82 goals scored, an average of 1.012 goals per game.
The Stats Zone has some terrific information on the UEFA Champions League goals scored by Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.
Some snapshots of the information from Stats Zone:
- Messi has scored 81 of his 100 Champions League goals with his left foot
- One in every six goals scored by Ronaldo has been from a header
- No player has scored more goals than Lionel Messi in the round of 16 – 24 in all
- Perhaps another reason as to why Juventus signed Ronaldo? He has scored 10 goals against Juventus, more than any other team
And here is some more stats and facts courtesy of UEFA.com
- Messi has been on the losing side just three times when he has scored for Barcelona in the Champions League
- 2017/18 was the seventh season running that Ronaldo has scored ten goals or more in the UEFA Champions League
- Messi and Ronaldo are level at 7-7 in hat-tricks
- Ronaldo did not score until his 30th game in the UEFA Champions League
- Ronaldo is the only player to score in three UEFA Champions League finals
- Ronaldo took 144 games to reach 100; Messi 123.
Odds and Probs
Website fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting take on the probability of how far each of the 32 teams will progress in this season’s Champions League. Real Madrid is given a 93% of qualifying for the group stage and a 14% chance that it will lift the trophy for the 4th straight season.
Manchester City’s probability of getting beyond the group stage is 92% while the chance of City winning the competition is 15%.
Barcelona is another team given a 15% chance to win the UEFA Champions League but it looks as if the Spanish champions will have a slightly more difficult time making it out of the group – 86%.
Ronaldo’s new team Juventus sits at 77% after being drawn in a group with Valencia, Manchester United and Young Boys. Juventus was a runner-up in two of the last four seasons and is given a 6% probability of going one step better.
Meanwhile, the bookmakers make Manchester City the favorite to win the 2018/19 UEFA Champions League at odds of +600, Barcelona is +650, Juventus +800 and Real Madrid +900.
FIXTURES
The #UCL is back with a bang
Did you miss us? pic.twitter.com/bwzRcsFtOI— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) September 17, 2018
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